Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme

The Scheme provides a structured and collaborative framework through which members develop, maintain and apply evidence on the drivers of rail demand.

It operates through a combination of coordinated research, shared guidance, and active industry engagement. Members contribute to and benefit from a collective approach, ensuring that knowledge and best practice are developed once and applied consistently across the sector.

Key ways the Scheme works and delivers value include:

• Research programme
  Commissioning and managing industry-funded research to improve understanding of passenger behaviour, market trends, and demand drivers

• Guidance and best practice
  Developing and maintaining guidance to support consistent application of evidence within forecasting models and analytical approaches

• Collaboration and governance
  Providing structured forums for members to share insights, challenge assumptions, and align on methodologies and priorities

• Shared evidence base
  Maintaining a central, evolving body of evidence that reflects the latest research and industry developments

• Industry support and application
  Helping organisations apply evidence in practice to inform revenue forecasting, timetable planning, business cases, and investment decisions

Through this approach, the Scheme reduces duplication of effort, strengthens consistency across the industry, and builds confidence in forecasting outputs. It also ensures the rail sector is better equipped to respond to changing passenger needs and plan effectively for the future.